Unity and Disunity in the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN)

It's two months before the 2012 legislative andmunicipal elections in El Salvador and campaigning has begun. We'll startlooking towards that election over the next few weeks. Unlike Guatemala,congressional elections in El Salvador are pretty important as the legislativeblocs tend to remain unified throughout the legislative period and the deputiestend to vote together. Not always, but more so than in Guatemala where, as ofTuesday, over thirty members of congress (nearly (20%) have already switched parties. 

To get us started on El Savador, here's a paper thatAlberto Martin Alvarez (Universidad de Colima) and I have forthcoming in Latin American Politics and Societyon Unity and Disunity in the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional(FMLN):

Problems of unity can affect an armed oppositiongroup at many stages of its existence - during the war, peace negotiations, andits transition to political party. In this paper, we assess to what extentinternal divisions affected the performance of the Farabundo Martí NationalLiberation Front (FMLN) in El Salvador.

We find that while the FMLN suffered significantinternal divisions in the early years of the war, the group remained remarkablyunified from 1983 onwards. Significant divisions among the groups began to showthemselves during the later years of the war, but they did not becomeexacerbated until after the war’s conclusion when the FMLN suffered fromrepeated fracturing. The FMLN only began to present itself as aprogrammatically coherent party in 2005 and this ideological homogeneityallowed it to conclude a series of partnerships with moderate,non-revolutionary sectors of Salvadoran society and achieve victory in the 2009presidential elections. 

The paper won't be out until later this year so there might be a few formatting edits before then. However, the paper really shouldn't change much.

"A call to recognize the crimes of High Finance"

David Friedrichs, my criminal justice / sociology colleague from the end of the hall, has some commentary at MarketWatch in which he argues that Occupy Wall Street does have a clear message and that it is a "A call to recognize the crimes of High Finance".

What are the Occupy Wall Street protesters seeking? Critics of this endeavor claim that there is a lack of a clear focus, agenda and strong leadership. But the overall message of the protesters is crystal clear and hugely important: we all need to become broadly conscious of what is wrong with our present political economy, and we have to promote the political will needed to transform it in fundamental ways.

There's some good things that I agree with in David's commentary such as we should take white collar crime more seriously. On the other hand, I'm not entirely convinced that OWS has a single, clear message (I don't have a problem with that) or that

The top priority of Wall Street should instead be to foster economic development, high levels of employment across the economy, and a fair and equitable distribution of the commonly produced gross national product for the benefit of the 99%.

It might be nice, but that sound more like the goals of government than Wall Street. Any way, it's worth a look. David is one of the country's foremost experts on white collar crime.

Social Assistance Policies and the Presidential Vote in Latin America

Matthew L. Layton and Amy Erica Smith from Vanderbilt University have a new report out for AmericasBarometer using survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). 

Layton and Smith find that citizens who benefit from conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are more likely to vote for an incumbent party than are people who do not benefit from these CCT programs. The impact of these CCT programs on hypothetical votes is strongest in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. While one obviously does not want politicians to use these CCT programs simply for political gain (See Lemonade International with h/t to Tim Hoiland), the preliminary evidence is that they do reap electoral benefits.   

Here is the executive summary from Social Assistance Policies and the Presidential Vote in Latin America

In this Insights report we use a cross-national analysis of nine Latin American countries to determine what correlations, if any, exist between participation in social assistance programs, including conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, and support for the incumbent presidential candidate or party. We find that in almost every country examined, social assistance recipients are more likely to vote for the incumbent than non-recipients, even after accounting for social class, economic perceptions, and national context. These results highlight that social programs have political effects in addition to their social and economic effects.

In the 2011 Guatemalan elections, we don't know whether the incumbent party would have benefited electorally from its CCT programs. They would have needed a presidential candidate.

Prosecuting Human Rights Violators in Central America

Kathryn Sikkink, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, has an op-ed piece in the New York Times on Making Tyrants Do Time that should be of interest to those following events in El Salvador and Guatemala. In it, she speaks directly to concerns that have been voiced about the potential destabilizing effects of prosecuting individuals for war crimes and crimes against humanity in postwar societies.

Historical and statistical evidence gives us reason to question criticisms of human rights trials. My research shows that transitional countries — those moving from authoritarian governments to democracy or from civil war to peace — where human rights prosecutions have taken place subsequently become less repressive than transitional countries without prosecutions, holding other factors constant.

By comparing countries like Argentina and Chile that have used human rights prosecutions with those like Brazil that have not, I found that prosecutions tended not to exacerbate human rights violations, undermine democracy or lead to violence.

Of 100 countries that underwent a transition from 1980 to 2004 (the period for which extensive data is available), 48 pursued at least one human rights prosecution, and 33 of those pursued two or more. Countries that have prosecuted former officials exhibit lower levels of torture, summary execution, forced disappearances and political imprisonment. Although civil war heightens repression, prosecutions in the context of civil war do not make the situation worse, as critics claim.

Such evidence doesn’t tell us what will happen in any individual country, but it is a better basis from which to reason than a counterfactual guess. The possibility of punishment and disgrace makes violating human rights more costly, and thus deters future leaders from doing so.

If political leaders in Central America want to improve the human rights situations in the region, the historical record indicates that Guatemala should continue with prosecutions and El Salvador should start them. Prosecuting former government officials for human rights violations is more likely to strengthen democracy than it is to destabilize it.

Everyday Revolutionaries: Gender, Violence and Disillusionment in Postwar El Salvador

Lotti Silber has a new book out on Everyday Revolutionaries: Gender, Violence and Disillusionment in Postwar El Salvador. Here's the excerpt

Everyday Revolutionaries provides a longitudinal and rigorous analysis of the legacies of war in a community racked by political violence. By exploring political processes in one of El Salvador’s former war zones—a region known for its peasant revolutionary participation—Irina Carlota Silber offers a searing portrait of the entangled aftermaths of confrontation and displacement, aftermaths that have produced continued deception and marginalization. 

Silber provides one of the first rubrics for understanding and contextualizing postwar disillusionment, drawing on her ethnographic fieldwork and research on immigration to the United States by former insurgents. With an eye for gendered experiences,  she unmasks how community members are asked, contradictorily and in different contexts, to relinquish their identities as “revolutionaries” and to develop a new sense of themselves as productive yet marginal postwar citizens via the same “participation” that fueled their revolutionary action. Beautifully written and offering rich stories of hope and despair, Everyday Revolutionaries contributes to important debates in public anthropology and the ethics of engaged research practices. 

The book looks really interesting. Lotti probably doesn't remember but we were in El Salvador at the same time back in 1997.

The Peten Massacre in Context

Today we are fortunate enough to have a guest post from Hal Brands.  Hal is an assistant professor of public policy at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy. As an historian, he writes on U.S. foreign policy, Latin American security issues, and international crime and gang violence.He is also the author of Latin America's Cold War, released by Harvard University Press in 2010  

He recently published "Crime, Irregular Warfare, and Institutional Failure in Latin America: Guatemala as a Case Study" in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism (March 2011) and therefore has some keen insights into the significance of the recent massacre at Los Cocos in Peten, Guatemala.

The Peten Massacre in Context

The massacre in Peten last Sunday stands out for its brutality—at least 27 civilians murdered in a most horrific way—but not, unfortunately, for its originality.  The basic outlines of the recent massacre must be depressingly familiar to those who count themselves Guatemala-watchers, because the attack underscores several of the underlying issues that have subjected the country to such rampant violence over the past several years.

The first of these is the fact that Guatemala’s turmoil is inextricably linked to that of its neighbors.  This is obviously true in a broad sense, in that Guatemala is only part of a regional (and increasingly global) system of drug flows; it just happens to have the misfortune of sitting halfway between Colombia and the United States. 

It’s also true in a narrower sense.  Current indications are that the attack in Los Cocos was carried out by Los Zetas, the Mexican enforcer-gang-turned-cartel.  The Zetas have been moving into Guatemala over the past five years in an effort to increase their earnings at a time when they are under heavy pressure from the Calderon government in Mexico.  As they have made that move, they have brought with them their trademark propensity for savage violence against their competitors, of whom Otto Salguero is rumored to be one.  In effect, Guatemala is getting caught up in something that more and more approximates a broader regional drug war.

The second issue that the massacre underscores is the problem—intangible but incredibly corrosive—of citizen insecurity.  It doesn’t appear that the victims of the massacre had much to do with the drug trade, although it is always possible that some did.  Rather, they were killed because Los Zetas wanted to send a message.

Killing innocent civilians to make a point is an increasingly common tactic in Guatemala these days, and it has created a widespread perception that no one is safe from the violence, that the state can neither capture the guilty nor protect the innocent.  This perception, in turn, has pernicious consequences of its own: it decreases faith in democracy, makes solutions like vigilante or paramilitary violence more attractive, and thereby undermines Guatemala’s already –weak institutions.

This brings me to a third issue, which is that the massacre underscores the essential reason why the violence continues to rage: the impotence of the Guatemalan state.  Colom has responded to the massacre by declaring a state of siege in Peten. But given the size of the region, and the weakness of the Guatemalan police and military, it’s not clear that this measure will have much of an effect.   This goes to the heart of Guatemala’s problems: the fact that state institutions are simply too weak, too underfunded, and too corrupt to do the things—protecting the people, providing education and basic services, and so on—that we expect democratic governments to do.

All of this is to say that there isn’t an easy solution, or even a moderately difficult solution, for the violence that has once again been dramatized by the massacre in Peten.  Dealing with this problem requires concerted action along a variety of fronts, from social policy, to strengthening the forces or order, to anti-corruption measures.  (I’m reminded of this last issue by the apparent presence of a current or former Kaibil at Los Cocos.)

As I wrote in a recent article, there has been limited progress on some of these issues since Colom took power, but the overall results have not been encouraging.  If the most recent atrocity serves as a catalyst for the political class to deal more earnestly and urgently with Guatemala’s entrenched problems, it could lead to more imaginative and effective efforts to cope. If not, we may well see more such massacres in the future.

Political Scientist Makes a Difference in Chimaltenango, Guatemala

CNN has a great story on Anne Hallum and her work in Guatemala. Hallum is a political scientist from Stetson University in Florida who has spent the last two decades improving the lives of the people of Chimaltenango and rural Guatemala.

Hallum co-founded the Alliance for International Reforestation, a nonprofit whose mission is to help villagers protect themselves from deadly mudslides. Since 1992, the organization has helped has helped 110 rural villages plant more than 3.8 million trees.

"Deforestation -- or the absence of trees -- causes mudslides to occur...Trees are cut for firewood and to make room for the crops, and without realizing it ... they've taken away their protection. Where it used to be rainforest becomes an open space for the mud to come right on through."

"With the help of a former student, she researched rural resources and learned that many local Guatemalan tree varieties could be strategically replanted to provide fruit, fertilizer, coffee, food and medicinal herbs where resources were failing or nonexistent...

"When we started, it was all about fighting poverty," Hallum said. "We wanted to help families farm better and feed their children better. But we started to notice that in the areas where (pine) trees were planted, the mudslides were no longer occurring. So that brought a new focus for us. Food, shade, fertilizer and mudslide protection -- the trees can do it all."...

Local Guatemalan staff -- all trained agroforestry technicians -- are assigned six villages each and provide free weekly instructional courses on topics like tree planting, sustainable farming and air quality. Each technician remains in his or her assigned communities for five years. Hallum credits her group's success to this commitment of staying within a community until the community itself can see and reap benefits.

"It's a lot of work," Hallum said. "We don't come in, plant some trees and leave. We do that, and they'll cut them down. It's a step-by-step process that starts with education. In a little time, they notice their crops are doing better; mudslides aren't happening. And the behavior changes: They start to protect the trees. We say: 'All right, you've got it. You know how to do this now.' Then we leave ... on to the next village."

 
 
In addition to providing agricultural classes and planting trees, Hallum and her team donate and install ecofriendly and safe fuel-efficient cooking stoves to families based on economic need. You can see a brief clip on CNN's website as well. 
 
Inspiring stuff. Definitely beats political scientists in The Onion.

New FMLN Publication

I'd just like to draw your attention to a new publication on the FMLN.  The paper is by Alberto Martin Alvarez from the Universidad de Colima in Colima, Mexico.  "From Revolutionary War to Democratic Revolution" is one of a series of case studies produced as part of the Berghof research program on transitions from violence to peace.

Here is an abstract of the paper.

In the context of an authoritarian regime, controlled by the military in alliance with a powerful landowning oligarchy, Salvadoran political-military organizations sprang up throughout the 1970's. Political and economic exclusion were the basis from which a wide popular movement arose. Faced with the closing of arenas for political participation, huge numbers of activists joined the ranks of the guerrilla army during the 1970's.

The five Salvadoran revolutionary organizations formed the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front in October 1980, with the joint aim of both procuring the government's defeat as well as creating a socialist project. Following the defeat of the "final offensive" launched by the FMLN to oust the government in 1981, the conflict turned into a longstanding civil war that only came to an end when the main leaders from both sides became convinced it was impossible to attain military victory.

This work analyzes the emergence, dynamics and the transformation of the FMLN into a political party. the work pays particular attention to the causes that led to the armed struggle in El Salvador and the factors that made a negotiated solution to the armed conflict possible.

New Immigration Books

Two new immigration books are out.  The first one comes from Greg (Two Weeks Notice) and John (Weeks Population) Weeks.  Here's the excerpt for Irresistible Forces: Latin American Migration to the United States and its Effects on the South.

The politics, social issues, and cultural impacts of Latin American migration to the United States are often studied by historians and political scientists, but the regional focus is typically on the Southwest and California. This study examines the phenomenon of the impact of Latin American migration on the southeastern United States, a region that now has the nation's fastest growing immigrant population.

Incorporating a political demography approach, this study seeks to provide a clear understanding of the complex dynamics of migration with particular emphasis on the unique demographic fit between the United States and Latin America. This fit arises from one region needing young workers while the other has more than its economy can absorb. Although a relatively simple concept, it is one that has largely been ignored in the political discussions of migration policy. This study argues that the social and political ramifications of and policy responses to Latin American immigration can best be understood when viewed in light of these circumstances.

The second book, Shattering Myths on Immigration and Emigration in Costa Rica, is a volume edited by Carlos Sandoval-García and translated into English by Kari Meyers.  The book

...provides the first comprehensive examination of transnational migration patterns into and out of Costa Rica. This impressive edited volume brings together the work of 18 top scholars from diverse social science backgrounds to analyze Costa Rican migration patterns in the era of globalization.

The first section focuses on immigration in Costa Rican history, including chapters on Nicaraguan, North American and European immigration to the country as well a chapter on transnational migration within Central America.

The second part centers on the social and political status of Nicaraguans in Costa Rica that make up a sizable portion of the working-class similar to Mexican immigrants in the southwestern United States.

The third section of the book analyzes outmigration of Costa Ricans with chapters on the role of international remittances sent back to Costa Rica (a major source of income in contemporary Latin America) and particular migration patterns of Costa Ricans living in the northeastern United States.

The fourth part of the collection examines the timely topic of gender and cross-border migration with emphases on women in the actual migration transit process and the vulnerability of immigrant women in different industries including agriculture and sex tourism.

The concluding chapters emphasize the social and symbolic images of immigrants to Costa Rica including the construction of in-group and out-group identities, the use of symbolic violence and racism against immigrants.

While travelling and teaching in Costa Rica in 1998 and 2001, some Costa Ricans liked to say that they understood the US' "Mexican problem" better than anyone since the Ticos had "their own Nica problem."  They look like two promising books on interesting and important topics within the larger study of transnational migration.

Jesuit Alumni take D.C.

Fifty-three members of the 112th Congress are alumni of the nation's twenty-eight Jesuit colleges and universities.  Thirty-five attained graduate or professional degrees from Jesuit universities. Twelve serve in the Senate and forty-one in the House.

Here are the Senators:

• John Barrasso, (R-WY) Appointed 2007, Elected 2008, B.A. Georgetown University (1974) and M.D. Georgetown University (1978)
• Scott Brown, (R-MA) Elected 2010, J.D. Boston College (1984)
• Robert P. Casey, Jr., (D-PA) Elected 2006, B.A. College of the Holy Cross (1982)
• Richard J. Durbin, (D-IL) Elected 1996, B.S.F.S. Georgetown University (1966) and J.D. Georgetown University (1969)
• Michael (Mike) Johanns, (R-NB) Elected 2008, J.D. Creighton University (1974)
• John F. Kerry, (D-MA) Elected 1984, J.D. Boston College (1976)
• Patrick J. Leahy, (D-VT) Elected 1974, J.D. Georgetown University (1964)
• Mark Steven Kirk, (R-IL) Elected 2010, J.D. Georgetown University (1992)
• Robert Menendez, (D-NJ) Appointed & Elected 2006, B.A. Saint Peter's College (1976)
• Barbara A. Mikulski, (D-MD) Elected 1986, B.A. Loyola University Maryland (1958)
• Lisa Murkowski, (R-AK) Appointed 2002, Elected 2004, B..A. Georgetown University (1980)
• Jim Webb, (D-VA) Elected 2006, J.D. Georgetown University (1975) 

Jesuit alumni also serve as House leaders.  Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) graduated from Xavier University and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) graduated from Georgetown.  You can see the rest of the house alumni by following the link.

Georgetown University leads the way with eighteen alumni, followed by Boston College (7), and the College of the Holy Cross (4).  Four schools (Creighton University, Fordham University, Marquette University, and the University of Detroit Mercy) each have 3.

Not bad. Unfortunately, neither my alma mater not current employer make the list.

At least another thirty alumni serve in the Obama administration including

• Department of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates (Georgetown University, 1974, PhD)
• Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet A. Napolitano (Santa Clara University, 1979, BA)
• Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Leon E. Panetta (Santa Clara University, 1960, BA)
• White House Chief of Staff William Daley (Loyola University Chicago, 1970, BA)

A few questions come to mind.

First, how does the percentage of Jesuit alumni serving in Congress today compare to previous sessions?  Is ten percent high? low?

Second, do individuals interested in public service choose to attend Jesuit colleges and universities or does the Ignatian experience cause them to pursue a life of public service?  Maybe we're doing something right.

Finally, how important is the Jesuit alumni network (current and former congressmen) in getting elected?  Are members of congress, in any way, more likely to work with each other because of their shared college experiences?  

You can see a global list on Wikipedia that includes Externado San Jose and UCA alumnus Mauricio Funes.

You're wasting your time

The Economist has a story on Why doing a PhD is often a waste of time that highlights many problems confronted by those pursuing a doctorate in the United States and around the world.

Academics tend to regard asking whether a PhD is worthwhile as analogous to wondering whether there is too much art or culture in the world. They believe that knowledge spills from universities into society, making it more productive and healthier. That may well be true; but doing a PhD may still be a bad choice for an individual.

It is well worth reading for those in academia or hoping to crack into the profession.