What President-elect Otto Perez Molina Inherits in Guatemala

On Sunday, just over 50 percent of registered voters turned out to help former general Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party (PP) defeat Manuel Baldizón of the Renewed, Democratic, Liberty (LIDER), 54 percent to 46 percent with 98 percent of the vote counted. 

This year's election campaign was marred by violence (over 30 candidates and campaign-workers killed), the utter disregard of electoral laws (campaign spending and donor transparency, a failure to abide by the official start date) except when it suited them (Sandra Torres' disqualification), outlandish proposals (Baldizón's promise to lead Guatemala to the World Cup), and a one size fits all mano dura solution to crime and insecurity in Guatemala.

The president-elect does in fact confront a difficult situation (El Nuevo Herald, Telesur, NYT). Over 50 percent of the population lives in poverty. The percentage of the population living in poverty is much greater in the countryside and among the indigenous. Even though Honduras and El Salvador are now much more violent, statistically speaking, Guatemala remains one of the most violent countries in the world, especially for women. The country's economy is expected to grow by less than 3 percent this year which is among the region's lowest and that was before the most recent storm damaged infrastructure and crops. 

On the other hand, President-elect Perez probably has more going for him than President Alvaro Colom did upon taking office. First, while the country's murder rate remains alarmingly high, it is on a downwards trend. Guatemala [correction] recorded 4,000-4,500 murders during the first nine months of the year and is on pace for 5,500-5,750 in 2011, down from 6,451 in 2009 and 5,960 in 2010. 

Colom added about 6,000 police officers during his term. However, after removing over 2,000 or so corrupt police officers, it's only a net of 4,000. To fulfill his promise of putting 10,000 more police on the streets and reaching 35,000, Perez will probably need to add 15,000 while continuing to remove those officers who are corrupt or are abusing their power (~5,000). Increasing the number of police should go a long way towards Perez’s goal of lowering the country’s murder rate by half during his four-year term.    

Second, Perez has Claudia Paz y Paz and Helen Mack. Paz y Paz was appointed by President Colom as the country’s first female attorney general and Helen Mack as police reform commissioner. Even though some Guatemalan elites have tried to sabotage their efforts to reform the judicial system and police force, from all indications they have done an exceptional job. While not completely eradicated, extrajudicial killings carried out by the police and security forces appear to have declined significantly. 

Guatemala has also made important steps to address its past. President Colom apologized on behalf of the Guatemalan state to former President Jacobo Arbenz's family for its complicity in the 1954 CIA-led coup that removed him from office. Among other things, the state has promised to more accurately depict Arbenz’ accomplishments and faults in schools. 

Four former military officials have also been sentenced to over 6,000 years in prison for one of the worst civil war massacres, the killing of over 200 men, women and children at Dos Erres in December 1982. Authorities also arrested several high-ranking officials, including former general Hector Mario Lopez Fuentes, former intelligence chief José Mauricio Rodríguez , and former general and de facto president Oscar Mejia, for their responsibility in the execution of the government’s 1980s scorched earth program.

Finally, the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) has had its mandate extended until 2013. While not perfect, CICIG and its commissioner Francisco Dall'Anese have taken important steps to provide the Guatemalan people and its institutions with the tools necessary to tackle impunity.

While these are some areas where Perez can continue the work of Colom, he also has to do more than Colom did to reform the country’s tax base, to promote transparency and the institutionalization of the government’s social programs, to tackle land inequality and respect for indigenous rights, and to provide long-term human security to the people of the Petén, Alta Verapaz, and the rest of Guatemala.

President Otto Perez Molina

Prensa Libre

General Perez Leads in Preliminary Tally

Preliminary returns have Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party in the lead.

Siglo XXI

Some thoughts while we wait

Guy Adams has Former general set to win Guatemalan presidency for The Independent. Yes, the murder rate doubled from 2006 to 2009, but it's decreased dramatically since that peak year (hopefully).There were 6,451 killed in 2009 and 5,960 2010. Guatemala's on pace for somewhere between 4,000-4,500 in 2011. Time to update the numbers.

Perez's pledges of "expanding the police, moving the army into trouble zones, and building more high-security prisons" is pretty similar to what President Colom has done and probably what any president after him would have done.

Finally, while Perez denies that troops under his command committed any atrocities, I find that hard to believe that neither Perez nor any other military official somehow avoided taking part in human rights violations from 1981-1983. Oh and the fact that he played an important role in helping to end the war in 1996 is not proof that he wasn't involved in any atrocities fifteen years earlier.

Edgar Calderon of AFP has Ex-general favorite as Guatemalans vote in run-off. Calderon mentions that Perez criticized President Colom of using state resources to influence today's vote. 

Amid a typically tense electoral climate, Perez accused government officials of handing out vouchers for roofing and food supplies to the poor in exchange for their votes for Baldizon.

"I am asking the president... to take his hands off this vote, and stop using Guatemalans' money to try to buy votes in favor of a candidate," said the white-haired ex-general, who long ago traded his military fatigues for civilian garb.

The allegations are probably true. I can understand why he wants to prevent Perez from winning but that doesn't make it right. And there are reports that the PP and LIDER were buying votes throughout the country, particularly in Solola. The PP was allegedly giving out food for votes in Totonicapan.

Elinor Comlay and Mike McDonald have more or less the same stories for Reuters in 

Right-wing retired general favorite in Guatemala vote. 

I'm still having trouble understanding what the human rights procurator recently said in that the 2011 election cycle has been the "most violent" in recent history with 43 dead in campaign-related killings. They are working off a number of 32 for 2007. A CRS Report for (US) Congress had 56 dead in 2007 and an EU report over 50. Have we all been exaggerating the violence in 2007?

Well, the polls are now closed and the counting has begun. Some violence, allegations of vote buying, and a higher level of abstention as expected. 

Weekend Elections

Prensa Libre has its final poll for Sunday's presidential elections in Guatemala. According to the poll carried out October 26 to 28, Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party leads 58.5% to 41.5% over Manuel Baldizon of LIDER. When you factor in blank and null votes (5.7%), Perez leads 54.6% to 38.7%.

It's pretty certain that the former general is going to win this weekend. However, Perez won three out of four November polls back in 2007 before he was ultimately defeated by Alvaro Colom. Obviously, this election is different from that one - Perez is more of a well-known commodity, the choice back then was the right vs. center/center-left, mano dura vs. a more comprehensive approach to violence.

While we can't know for sure how the victor is going to govern, I do worry about their plans to pursue more mano dura policies towards gangs and cartels. It's not really my area of expertise, but those policies didn't really work out to well (yet?) in Honduras, El Salvador, and Mexico. Each country's murder rate increased after the implementation of mano dura policies.

In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is poised to win a first round victory. Boz has some thoughts on the elections as does Tim Rogers. While Ortega and the FSLN get pretty low marks for democracy and the rule of law, the economy is growing, poverty is declining, and the streets of Managua and the rest of the country are much safer than those of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. While I can't say that Ortega has been a force for democracy in the country (and might be bad in the medium- to long-term), I can understand why he is favored to win.

Honestly, I don't "care" who wins this weekend's elections. I don't care if it is Perez or Baldizon, Ortega or Gadea, or the FMLN or ARENA in March. It's more important to me that whoever wins governs in the best interests of the Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, and Salvadoran people.

Three for Three

The Patriotic Party's Otto Perez Molina is now three for three. Borge y Asociados and El Periodico released poll numbers today that have the former general in the lead with 55.1% of the vote. LIDER's Manuel Baldizon picks up the remaining 44.9%. 

However, when you factor in the 6.4% who don't plan to vote and the 10.7% who don't know who they are going to vote for or simply didn't respond, Perez’s lead looks a little more tenuous at 45.7% to 37.2%.   

No good news for those looking to keep the former general out of the presidency.

The poll was conducted between October 8 and 17 among 2,016 persons in the 22 departments of the country. The poll has a margin of error of 2.2%.

Campaign ads in Guatemala

@EleccionesGua on Twitter links to some television advertisements in Guatemala. Here is the one for Otto Perez Molina and the Patriotic Party.



And here is the second one for Manuel Baldizon of LIDER.



Advantage Baldizon. 

2nd Poll has Perez Molina in Lead

El Diario 24

According to a recent CID / Gallup survey, Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriotic Party has maintained his lead over Manuel Baldizon of Lider with seventeen days remaining before the second round. The survey was carried out among 1,215 Guatemala between October 9 and 16 and has a margin of error of 2.8%.

39.7% said that they intended to vote for Pérez Molina in round two. Baldizón followed seven and one-half points behind with 32.2%. The remaining 28% didn't mark their simulated ballots. If you don't take the null ballots into account, Pérez Molina leads 55% to 45%. 

CID/Gallup's poll is a bit different from the Prensa Libre / Prodatos poll carried out the week before (October 4 - 8). In that poll, Pérez Molina led 56% to 44%. However, when you factored in the undecided / null vote, Pérez Molina had 49.4%, Baldizón 39.2%, and 11% for the remaining categories. 

Remember, polling in Guatemala is not as reliable as when done in the United States. And I imagine that the rains of the last week are going to cause problems on election day. If anything, that is going to hurt Baldizón who has more support in the rural areas, precisely those areas cut off from the floods.

While the race could still go either way, Pérez Molina remains the odds on favorite.

2nd Round Poll Numbers - Update

Siglo XXI

In Guatemala, Prensa Libre and Prodatos came out with the first poll numbers ahead of the November 6th runoff between Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party and Manuel Baldizon of LIDER. The poll was conducted between October 4 and 8 among 1,204 Guatemalans using the same ballot (party symbol and presidential photo) that voters will use.

Using just the valid vote, 55.8% of those surveyed indicated that they intended to vote for Perez next month and the remaining 44.2% intended to vote for Baldizon. However, Prensa Libre does not tell us what percentage of the 1,204 responses were invalid or undecided. We really need these number to make sense of the poll. If undecideds are evenly split, it doesn't matter. However, if undecideds break for Baldizon this could be a much closer race. Remember the first round polling does not appear so off if one only looks at polls that report undecideds.

It's only one poll so I am going to wait until others come out before giving the second round victory to Perez. And even if every poll this month gives Perez a victory, that might not be enough. In 2007, Perez won six out of the seven polls conducted between the first and second round vote before losing to Alvaro Colom.

Perez received 36.03% of the first round vote and Baldizon followed a distant second with 23.20%.

***Boz alerted me to some information on the undecideds. When the blank or null votes are included, Perez has 49.4% and Baldizon 39.2%. 11% of those surveyed completed blank or null votes. I know it would be a longer newspaper title, but these numbers are the more accurate ones and should be the headline rather than 56% for Perez.

Some Questions on Violence in Guatemala

As the murder rate continues to decrease in Guatemala, year over year and month over month, 

Marco Augusto García, president of the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial (Cacif), noted that there has not been a decline in the statistics of criminal acts in the country.

"We have been affected by almost the same average annual violent deaths. We do not see a decrease on that side. The statistics reflect that, "he explained.

At some point you really have to wonder who benefits from denying the Colom administration's success in reducing the murder rate. Sure you can't give entire credit to Colom and his government, but the president and his administration have got to get some credit.

Is it in the media's interest to portray a deteriorating (or non-improving) security situation because it dislikes Colom? Is the media playing up the violence even when murders are decreasing because their offices are primarily located in Guatemala City where most murders occur?

Is it in the interests of businesses that sell security-related services to the Guatemalan population to highlight how bad it is? Is it in the interests of the PNC and military to say how conditions are deteriorating so that they can get their new super tucanos?

Is denying a decrease in the murder rate all part of a conspiracy to ensure that Otto Perez Molina gets elected?

Stranger things have happened.

Otto Perez leads everywhere

Carlos Mendoza of The Black Box has two articles on the September 11th election in Guatemala. The first one appeared in Plaza Publica on Wednesday. This article took a look at the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates that will advance to November's runoff. 

In the first round vote, the Patriotic Party's Otto Perez Molina attained the highest vote in 222 of the country's 333 municipalities. Manuel Baldizon of Lider, on the other hand, won a plurality in 83 municipalities. Medoza finds that Perez performed better in more violent, urban, wealthier, and non-indigenous municipalities than he did in less violent, rural, poorer, and indigenous municipalities. 

On Friday, he broke the data down into somewhat more precise categories based upon what quartile the municipality occupied relative to the rest of the nation. The tables here help to better visualize Perez' strength across the board and also appear to undermine some of the initial reads on Perez' performance. 

For example, Perez performed better in the more violent municipalities (combine violento and muy violento) than he did in the less violent municipalities (pacifico and poco violent). However, he performed nearly equally as well in muy violento, violento, and pacifico municipalities which leads one to believe that Perez' mano dura platform was not much more effective where he probably thought it should have been (very violent municipalities). 

Keep in mind that these municipalities were separated based on each one's murder rate (murders per 100,000). If we were able to categorize the municipalities by perceptions of insecurity, one might get a different understanding of how Guatemalans voted a few weeks ago. Not to mention that if you were able to look at individual level data.

What's interesting to me, at least, is that Perez received between 32% and 38% no matter how you slice the data - dimensions of insecurity, rural/urban divide, wealth, ethnicity, and human development.

UNE-GANA Alliance Dissolves

On September 4th, I wrote

UNE and GANA are two of the country’s largest political parties and account for approximately one-third of the congress’ seats. The two parties have no presidential candidate and their short-lived electoral alliance will likely end in eight days. I wouldn't be surprised if one, if not both, were not around in 2015.

Well, it took a little longer than anticipated. The UNE-GANA alliance lasted 25 days.

Manifestación Pacifica URNG a Favor De Walter Félix

Slow going in the Guatemalan congress

Representatives of several political parties have criticized the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for a delay in transmitting September 11's results, inadequate training at polling stations, lack of legal certainty in the registration of candidates, refusal to settle lawsuits and lack of security in the handling of the bags elections.

As of today, we still do not know the final distribution of seats in the Guatemalan congress. Here are the results based upon what El Periodico has up on its website. 

However, El Periodico reports that the calculations were based upon the results of 99.49% of the polling stations. The Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG) and the Unionist party continue to battle over one seat so their numbers are not final. In Izabal, UNE requested a review of votes to determine if its candidate had won a seat rather than the PP who the TSE has the seat going to. 

Earlier in the week, the URNG lost its seat in Huehuetenango. Initially, they thought that the URNG's Walter Felix had won. Guatemalan electoral authorities say that they initially made a mistake by giving votes from the ANN, Winaq, and URNG to Felix. However, once they realized that the three had not entered into an electoral coalition in Huehuentenago, they took the ANN and Winaq votes away from Felix and the seat went to the PP. 

The URNG has sent a letter to the Organization of American States’ electoral mission stating that they might have been the victim of fraud. If the results stand, the left will have only two seats in congress. Now, we can say that it is a disappointing performance for the left in Guatemala.

Round 2 Election Maneuvering in Guatemala

Even though women voters outnumbered men in Guatemala's September 11 election, only 7 mayoral positions were won by women. Seven out of 333 is disappointing but it is one more than female candidates for mayor won in 2007.

While Nineth Montengro and the Encounter for Guatemala (EG) might not be big fans of Manuel Baldizon, it's tough to imagine them supporting Otto Perez Molina in the second around. However, the EG appears undecided between Baldizon, Perez, and neutrality and won't have a decision before midweek. Montenegro is scheduled to meet with Perez on Tuesday. Its coalition partner, Harold Caballeros of ViVa has already thrown his support behind Perez and will be making public appearances besides the former general.

Perez also says that he has the support of 25 mayors and six members of congress elected as members of UNE-GANA.

Three mayors and one congressman from San Marcos make up those URNG who have already decided to support Baldizon in round two. For the URNG, the choice was Baldizon or no one.

On the one hand, coalition building between rounds 1 and 2 is healthy in a system run by majority runoff electoral rules. It gives some of the smaller parties (ViVa, EG, URNG, etc.) the ability to leverage its showing in the first round into promises of government positions or policy promises in return for support in round two.

On the other hand, what's going on right now also reflects the weakness of Guatemala's political party system. The the top two candidates looking for support among individual mayors and members of congress. There's little search for programmatic coherence. The ViVa-EG coalition is so far split on who to vote for in round two and if Perez is correct, the UNE-GANA coalition looks like it'll have members supporting Perez and Baldizon.

Honestly, I have no idea how well these endorsements will translate into additional electoral support in round two. It's probably better to have them than to not have them, but it's not clear that those who support the URNG or EG are going to be influenced by whether the party leadership endorses Baldizon or Perez.

Guatemala Election Links

Kevin Casas-Zamora has an interesting read on Guatemala: Between A Rock and A Hard Place for Brookings. Like Casas-Zamora, I am not overly impressed by the two remaining candidates.

I’m not sure that Casas-Zamora would agree but I lean towards saying that Guatemalans probably shouldn't vote for Perez Molina given what he is alleged to have done in the past and they shouldn't vote for Manuel Baldizon given what he says that he is going to do in the future. Not a good situation to be in.

Nic Wirtz and Kara Andrade also do a nice job with a brief write-up following the first round in Guatemala's Election and Looking Toward the Second Round on the Americas Quarterly blog.

Still Wrapping up Sunday's Election in Guatemala

The URNG, Patriotic Party, Lider, FRG, and Unionist parties are all fighting for the last congressional seats up for grabs. The URNG, PP, and Lider are currently battling over who will get the last of ten seats from Huehuetenango. As I mentioned yesterday, the URNG had won at least one seat from Huehue in each election since the end of the country's civil war. No one seems happy about the TSE's slow reporting of final results. 

Parties are still working through the details of alliances for the November runoff. However, @EleccionesGua is reporting that UNE, GANA, the Frente Amplio and UCN will support Manuel Baldizon in the November 6th runoff with Otto Perez Molina. Several pre-election polls asked Guatemalans who they would support in a runoff between Perez and candidate X (Baldizon, Suger, Caballeros, etc.). Perez won easily each time.

I think that the runoff is going to be very competitive regardless of whether other candidates/parties endorse Baldizon. However, this will especially especially be the case if UNE, GANA, the Frente Amplio and UCN throw their weight behind Baldizon. A lot is going to depend on turnout in the second round and whether an endorsement by UNE or GANA or whoever's leadership is enough to get their voters to the polls.

In other news, President Colom extended the state of alarm in the Peten for another thirty days.

Composition of Guatemalan Congress Remains Uncertain

And here is an updated allocation of seats for the new congress from Prensa Libre.

As you can see, there are a few changes from what I posted last night. The PP is down two seats, LIDER is up 1, Frente Amplio down 1, and Unionista is up 2. The URNG/Frente Amplio picked up one seat from San Marcos and one from the national list. Now, I would say that it is a disappointing electoral outcome for the former guerrillas and affiliated groups. They only won two seats (out of 158) and lost in Huehuetenango, a department where they had successfully elected at least one member of congress since the end of the war (1999, 2003, and 2007).

However, El Periodico's numbers are a little different in that it has the PP with 56, Frente Amplio with 3 and LIDER with 13. It might not matter to the PP whether it has 54 or 56, but it sure matters to the Frente Amplio and URNG. 

Some other links to check out:

• Danilo Valladares continues strong coverage of Guatemala with Retired General nd Populist in Duel for Presidency.
• CARLOS A. MENDOZA has GUATEMALA: ALGUNAS REFLEXIONES POST-ELECTORALES, A NIVEL CUANTITATIVO.
• Victorias y derrotas relativas by Martín Rodríguez Pellecer

Confusing Poll Numbers?

Some surveys conducted prior to this weekend's election in Guatemala reported two sets of number. In the first and most frequently reported one, analysts and commentators, including myself, reported support for the candidates in terms of what percentage of votes they received among all candidates on the ballot excluding null, blank and spoiled ballots.

For example, in Siglo XXI's most recent Encuesta IV (the one that lead people to ask why Perez's support dropped significantly during the final month) Perez came in at 44.8%, Baldizon at 22.5%, and Suger at 18.4%. However, these are the results when null votes, didn't vote, and blank vote are excluded.

When you include the the 39% of respondents who didn't vote (18.8%), spoiled their ballots (1.9%), or submitted a blank ballot (8.1%) in the poll, the outcome for the first election was more in doubt than previously recognized. Here, Perez counted 31.9%, Baldizon 16%, and Suger 13.1% support.

If you start from these last numbers and then try to figure out how the first round went the way that it did, it's not as difficult to figure out.

Surprising Results in Guatemala?

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has preliminary numbers in Guatemala and it's all but certain that front runner Otto Perez of the Patriotic Party will advance to a runoff against Manuel Baldizon of LIDER on November 6.

Here are the results as reported as the TSE's website.

Perez leads with 36% and Baldizon follows with 23%. Suger will likely come in third with 16%. There's no surprise in the order of the top three finishers. However, Perez' support seems a little low given where recent polls had his level of support.

Some other thoughts:

While several problems with the vote came across Twitter yesterday, local electoral authorities and OAS representatives claim that the overall vote went rather smoothly.

Greg argues that the Guatemalan left was routed yesterday. That's a tough one to assess so far. The Frente Amplio never had a shot at winning the presidency and the early returns actually give Rigoberta Menchu 3.18% of the vote which is quite good compared to what I was expecting (3.09% in 2007). She had been polling consistently below 2%, sometimes even below 1%. On the other hand, while the Frente Amplio considers themselves the Guatemalan left, you'll also find leftist candidates and supporters in the coalitions for UNE-GANA and Viva-EG as well as Baldizon's LIDER. For the Frente Amplio, I'll wait until congressional seats and mayors are determined before characterizing its performance as a failure.

On the other hand, if the results hold up, Perez is yesterday's big loser. He and the PP must have thought that they had a reasonable opportunity to win a first round knockout or, if not, to at least come close. Instead, he captured a little more than one-third of the national vote. However, if his support surpasses 40% when the final tally is in, I reserve the right to change my mind. But, then again, 40-42% is still disappointing.

We might have an idea later today, if not tomorrow, as to the composition of the 158-member congress. However, it doesn't look like any single party will have a majority.