Drug and violence links from around the region

From the Miami Herald 

The U.S. government’s anti-drug smuggling offensive on the Mexican border has caused a “balloon effect” that is expected to spur more narcotics trafficking through the Caribbean, South Florida’s top federal official warned Thursday.

Cocaine and other illegal drugs flooding the United States are still flowing mostly through a pipeline from Colombia to Mexico across the Southwest border. But the trend is expected to shift, U.S. Attorney Wifredo Ferrer said in Miami Thursday.

“We’re hitting them hard there,’’ Ferrer told reporters. “It’s only a matter of time before we see an increase here.’’

That's right. Our success in Mexico and Central America is leading to an uptick in drugs through the Caribbean. 


Some other drug and violence-related stories

Feds seize drug sub with 7.5 tons of cocaine off Honduran coast

Mexico's drug war comes to Belize (Why not the United States' drug war?)

 Guatemala: Drug Trafficking and Violence 

As Elections Loom, Report Profiles Guatemala's Drug Trafficking World

More on the the decline in homicides in Guatemala from Carlos Mendoza at CABI

At least 6 Colombians killed in Guatemala attacks (it's early yet, but October still looks a little more violent than the past few months)

Guatemala's murder rate hit a terrifying 52 per 100,000 in 2009. Colom is leaving with a murder rate approaching 40 per 100,000. Not bad considering where Honduras and El Salvador are today.

Central America Violence

According to InSight Crime, 2011 is lining up to be a terrible year for Honduras and El Salvador. 

Honduras is on track to reach a murder rate of 86 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2011, while El Salvador could see a rate of 72 per 100,000, according to new reports.

On the other hand, August was another relatively nonlethal month for Guatemala and the country is on track to have somewhere between 39 and 40 murders per 100,000. 

Granted these estimates assume that murders occur at roughly the same rate for the remaining months as they occurred during the first eight months of the year. That's a big if especially considering that the last few months tend to be more violent, at least in Guatemala. 

However, at what point do reporters and analysts stop lumping Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras together as the murderous northern triangle? 

At a minimum, it looks like El Salvador and Honduras should be discussed in one extreme category with rate over 70 per 100,000. 

Guatemala and Belize should follow in a second, still dangerous, but less severe category with 40 per 100,000.

Finally, Nicaragua and Costa Rica comprise the third and final category with a rate just over 10.

Reinforcing the Border - The Guatemala / Belize Border, that is

Although several Peten mayors recently requested a new state of siege in their department, Interior Minister Carlos Menocal today dismissed that possibility. According to Menocal, the government lacks resources to carry out sieges in other departments. While true, it's probably not what people want to hear given the positive evaluation most Guatemalans (though obviously not all, especially indigenous organizations) have showed towards the Alta Verapaz siege.

On the other hand, Belize's Ambassador to Guatemala is warning his countrymen of potential spillover effects from drug trafficking into their country. That spillover might come sooner rather than later as Belize says that the Guatemalan government is preparing for military operations in the Peten.

Belize’s Ambassador to Guatemala, H. E. Alfredo Martinez, told Amandala on Monday that there is already evidence that Guatemala’s narcotics problems are trickling to this side of the border. Martinez informed our newspaper that the Government of Guatemala is about to dispatch Special Forces soldiers to conduct regular foot patrols in the southern areas of Peten, near the border, while Belize military will do coordinated patrols on this side of the border.

I can't imagine that this is going over well with Belizeans. They already have one of the world's highest murder rates.

2010 was a record year for murders - and the new high mark for homicides is far, far higher than the previous record holder.

That would be 2008 when 103 murders were recorded; unofficially 2010 has seen 132.

That is 29 more than the previous record in 2008 - an increase of 29% - which is the greatest year to year increase since 2001 when the number of murders surged by 40%.

And even more alarming is that the 132 murders pushes Belize's murder rate per one hundred thousand to 40. That puts Belize officially among the highest in the world - and most likely in the top 10 worldwide.

And like Guatemala, there has been a "spike" in the killing of women (17 in 201). There were also 9 victims under the age of 16.