General Molina Leads the Charge

El Periodico released May poll numbers a few days ago. Same old, same old. Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party retained a significant lead over his main competitor, Sandra Torres of the National Unity for Hope party. Thirty-nine per cent said that they intend to vote for the General while eighteen per cent intend to vote for Torres. Both candidates saw their support slip from April's survey (Perez Molina's four per cent and Torres three percent), but Perez Molina still holds a twenty per cent lead.

While Suger finished third in the Prensa Libre / Prodatos survey, Manuel Baldizon (4.3%) finished third in this one. He was followed by Suger (2.8%) and Harold Caballeros (2.6%). The remaining characters each came in with less than 2% support. The big mover was self-proclaimed undecideds. They came in at 23.4%, up from April's 18.8%.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.1%.

Perez Molina Popular Everywhere

Last week's Borge y Asociados poll that had Otto Perez Molina comfortably ahead of the competition in the race for the presidency, also provided a breakdown of the major candidates' support by region.

Somewhat surprisingly, Otto Perez Molina is equally popular in both rural and urban areas of Guatemala (47.2% urban support and 47.3% rural support). In 2007, he performed much better in the cities. He now polls strongest in the north and the highlands, followed by the central region (including the capital). However, even where he is less popular, the south and the east, he easily finishes ahead of the second place finisher.

Less surprisingly, Sandra Torres de Colom is more popular in rural areas (20.3%) than she is in urban areas (9%). Her husband performed well in the rural communities in 2007. Torres' management of the government's social programs in the countryside is also likely to cause her support in rural areas to remain above her urban support. Her strongest support is in the south and north.

Eduardo Suger (CASA), who polls third nationally, has more support in urban areas, the Altiplano and the central while Mario Estrada (UCN) counts with nearly 5% in the eastern region of the country.

Perez Molina remains Guatemala's next president. Hopefully, if he wins, his name will not be added to the billboards popping up around the country.

Sent in by a reader (S)

Presidential Approval Ratings

I started to write a post on Mitofsky's compilation of presidential approval ratings around the hemisphere this morning, but fortunately Boz beat me to it. Check out his website for more discussion.

Here's how Central American leaders stand.

• Mauricio Funes 72%
• Ricardo Martinelli 65%
• Porfirio Lobo 51%
• Laura Chinchilla 45%
• Alvaro Colom 41%
• Daniel Ortega 40%

Now back to work on an R and R.

What the People Say - El Salvador II

In addition to how Salvadorans evaluate Funes' performance, Mitofsky also asked about next year's elections.

The survey indicates that 31% intend to vote FMLN and 27% for ARENA in the upcoming congressional elections. Only 5% intend to vote for a third political party (Obviously not a good sign for GANA). Support for the FMLN declined from 34% in November while ARENA's support increase by 1%.

In 2009, the FMLN won 35 seats with 43% of the nationwide vote while ARENA won 32 seats with 39% of the vote.

In terms of their preference for mayor, 30% intend to FMLN and 27% for ARENA. The PCN, PDC, and GANA captured a combined 9% while another 34% remain undecided.

Eighty-three percent are interested in President Obama's trip to the country and 74% believe that the trip will be helpful or very helpful.

Forty-nine percent believe that the congress will do a good or very good job under Sigfredo Reyes's direction while 23% don't expect much change. Given that this is the first time that the FMLN controls the presidency on the congress' board of directors and and still holds the presidency of the country, that's pretty good news that only 11% think that Reyes in charge will be bad or very bad.

There's no clear winner for what policy Reyes should focus upon. Passing law to tackle crime and to combat corruption come in at 9%.